Ledger / Prediction #2773 · token · 1H

Will $GEV still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9boL3BuwAfyxN7xaGe4fYPdiTsZjDLhW1JMPGC2rpump",
    "name": "Gods Eye View",
    "symbol": "GEV",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1571.3042844148815,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 448,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T01:39:26.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1086.7205745914662,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3761.114553086918,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1571.3042844148815,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $GEV would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,087, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $GEV (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash67446b31cac74135338d80ac3f530b3628235cf3063ddc78f57709cf4b6b5805

Previous hashdb0d7a6e2885d2907a7f84fdb612f2290ff23f50f4e334952d46ae146400bb15