Will "holder" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "holder" (3 distinct creators, rank #165). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.1384512881943919,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4204870429844957
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "holder",
    "rank60": 165,
    "share15": 0.004398826979472141,
    "share60": 0.00383008356545961,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 1.148493735003999,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999962025462963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4204870429844957
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018364208158299475,
  "shareRatio": 1.3704885187783735,
  "totalAfter": 43563,
  "shareBefore": 0.001338054263246737,
  "totalBefore": 48578,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 80,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity