GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2769 · narrative · 24H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (29 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.40809241817367803,
      "diversity": -0.15957446808510636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3975269469109228
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.021994134897360705,
    "share60": 0.03307799442896936,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 0.664917425528631,
    "diversity": 0.6170212765957447,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999962025462963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3975269469109228
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.363
Log loss0.923
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.008516401533411381,
  "shareRatio": 1.3831930961359558,
  "totalAfter": 43563,
  "shareBefore": 0.006155049610934991,
  "totalBefore": 48578,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 371,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 299
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "justice" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.62% → 0.85% (+38%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "justice" (24H). momentum contributed -0.41 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbd56fbf81674ad93fffdbc517179ea049e824a3d4d4cbe6a77fc223429b035cc
Previous hash5ec8b770f37977548e92159871a0642333bd6d3016616a2d430ca7186c1724a8