Ledger / Prediction #2763 · narrative · 1H

Will "grok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "grok" (24 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -0.2877758113622017,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40331687327242227
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grok",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.01906158357771261,
    "share60": 0.02541782729805014,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 0.7499296991122002,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990886111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40331687327242227
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.163

Log loss0.516

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038461538461538464,
  "shareRatio": 0.1641641729484963,
  "totalAfter": 1560,
  "shareBefore": 0.025034770514603615,
  "totalBefore": 1438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "grok" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.50% → 0.38% (-85%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "grok" (1H). momentum contributed -0.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd780ddb817b1b09d48bcf3f9a72ec6cb7c4a9a34c12ba3372cf41562c77baa9e

Previous hash6eb1df83b70cb96e575a132334099e63d5d1c00a8ce4dac38b704e7597f4daef