GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2762 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (31 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.08373486716349064,
      "diversity": -0.03488372093023262
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4760547669358407
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.02785923753665689,
    "share60": 0.030292479108635098,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 0.9196750598307883,
    "diversity": 0.7209302325581395,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990886111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4760547669358407
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.274
Log loss0.742
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03333333333333333,
  "shareRatio": 1.1125715169321169,
  "totalAfter": 1560,
  "shareBefore": 0.029902642559109873,
  "totalBefore": 1438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.99% → 3.33% (+11%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.08 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6eb1df83b70cb96e575a132334099e63d5d1c00a8ce4dac38b704e7597f4daef
Previous hashee10eeb882b4a90792479f2d31df785776d6664768582f58f5950044aea1c695