Ledger / Prediction #2762 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (31 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.
Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": -0.08373486716349064,
"diversity": -0.03488372093023262
},
"rawProbability": 0.4760547669358407
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.02785923753665689,
"share60": 0.030292479108635098,
"total15": 340,
"total60": 1435,
"momentum": 0.9196750598307883,
"diversity": 0.7209302325581395,
"launches15": 9,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 166,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990886111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4760547669358407
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.274
Log loss0.742
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03333333333333333,
"shareRatio": 1.1125715169321169,
"totalAfter": 1560,
"shareBefore": 0.029902642559109873,
"totalBefore": 1438,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 52,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 43
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 48% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.99% → 3.33% (+11%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.08 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6eb1df83b70cb96e575a132334099e63d5d1c00a8ce4dac38b704e7597f4daefPrevious hash
ee10eeb882b4a90792479f2d31df785776d6664768582f58f5950044aea1c695