Ledger / Prediction #2761 · narrative · 1H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1435 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (29 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.40809241817367803,
      "diversity": -0.15957446808510636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3701530154343478
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.021994134897360705,
    "share60": 0.03307799442896936,
    "total15": 340,
    "total60": 1435,
    "momentum": 0.664917425528631,
    "diversity": 0.6170212765957447,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 166,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990886111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990886111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3701530154343478
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.137

Log loss0.462

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008974358974358974,
  "shareRatio": 0.2814053069894467,
  "totalAfter": 1560,
  "shareBefore": 0.03268428372739916,
  "totalBefore": 1438,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.27% → 0.90% (-73%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "justice" (1H). momentum contributed -0.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashee10eeb882b4a90792479f2d31df785776d6664768582f58f5950044aea1c695

Previous hash8f459820a5c3aba238d992dc40754a9f52854f7ebbf2fbf1064a866acd31eaad