Ledger / Prediction #2749 · narrative · 6H
Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
57 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (39 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.29×.
Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3650420033100675,
"momentum": 0.25727121508465733,
"diversity": -0.07894736842105261
},
"rawProbability": 0.5200782209811758
},
"features": {
"term": "cat",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.048104956268221574,
"share60": 0.03719275549805951,
"total15": 342,
"total60": 1545,
"momentum": 1.2933958676638355,
"diversity": 0.6842105263157895,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 57,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 39
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 169,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989677777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5200782209811758
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.230
Log loss0.654
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04647550776583035,
"shareRatio": 1.2298398001314899,
"totalAfter": 8370,
"shareBefore": 0.0377988614800759,
"totalBefore": 13175,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 389,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 498
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.78% → 4.65% (+23%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (6H). volume contributed +0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
02d0e4c2b5bc20aba4e254bd21abc1f3724ff61c117ad03657cc7750a501ea1fPrevious hash
4e2fd6cd86da2897fdf055adfff7fcfbc0478e26f41fc121e5725647f1ef6d66