Ledger / Prediction #2747 · narrative · 1H

Will "around" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1545 launches in the last hour referenced "around" (9 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

Made2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -0.3609649954197456,
      "diversity": -0.6749999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26959063076708334
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "around",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.021865889212827987,
    "share60": 0.031371280724450196,
    "total15": 342,
    "total60": 1545,
    "momentum": 0.6970033963511766,
    "diversity": 0.1875,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938066666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938066666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26959063076708334
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.073

Log loss0.314

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.025623268698060944,
  "shareRatio": 0.8315199942924411,
  "totalAfter": 1444,
  "shareBefore": 0.030907920154539602,
  "totalBefore": 1553,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "around" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.09% → 2.56% (-17%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "around" (1H). diversity contributed -0.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf53a9651b6c8ddfbe876ee7a6dea5054dfad49cbca444429e954addaaedea802

Previous hash5b49752010ec33e617aec6a4525ea9e53d986e0174031c822bb586110805d1b4