Ledger / Prediction #2740 · narrative · 24H

Will "giga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "giga" (5 distinct creators, rank #95). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.4482219147167417,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25657236428011704
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "giga",
    "rank60": 95,
    "share15": 0.0013020833333333333,
    "share60": 0.005541069100391135,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 0.23498774509803919,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998810300925925
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25657236428011704
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.066

Log loss0.297

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001665009365677682,
  "shareRatio": 0.6557048100263824,
  "totalAfter": 43243,
  "shareBefore": 0.0025467065990261396,
  "totalBefore": 49083,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 72,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 125
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "giga" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.17% (-35%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "giga" (24H). momentum contributed -1.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha386e1e20e2e9bbe849d8bccbd24a856d6f345bd773c716c6add002b12d8f350

Previous hash4f09635b34b9717e13b7e9cb6c56d49b0f62987c70716dbd9593646b7b76254b