Ledger / Prediction #2732 · narrative · 1H

Will "bread" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "bread" (11 distinct creators, rank #25). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -2.506828868771152,
      "diversity": -0.35000000000000003
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05109914857682116
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bread",
    "rank60": 25,
    "share15": 0.0013020833333333333,
    "share60": 0.015971316818774447,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 0.08152636054421768,
    "diversity": 0.4583333333333333,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05109914857682116
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.052

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006954102920723226,
  "shareRatio": 0.06560678475698827,
  "totalAfter": 1438,
  "shareBefore": 0.015574302401038288,
  "totalBefore": 1541,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "bread" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.56% → 0.07% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bread" (1H). momentum contributed -2.51 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash490d2f312e991daab0f86d43504860424c5aaef42b1b377b561db50d09494655

Previous hash72d35ef5f8238f6e05d7f83679385c37ed30964cc6e3b21487463d870029e686