Ledger / Prediction #2730 · narrative · 1H

Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1533 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (10 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -0.08134563945395253,
      "diversity": -0.693103448275862
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3303066793378912
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mascot",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.03515625,
    "share60": 0.038135593220338986,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1533,
    "momentum": 0.9218749999999999,
    "diversity": 0.1724137931034483,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3303066793378912
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.109

Log loss0.401

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015994436717663423,
  "shareRatio": 0.4304627501291852,
  "totalAfter": 1438,
  "shareBefore": 0.03763789746917586,
  "totalBefore": 1541,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "mascot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.76% → 1.60% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "mascot" (1H). diversity contributed -0.69 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash70ba658ad1138c03d6e7c0a19fee0928a4849420df8f93365e7e3316b6822e08

Previous hashae1f57f31128de6843a5357f64706175e9b1642546c4c6c9f6e2db23d932abab