Ledger / Prediction #2727 · token · 1H

Will $KRTS still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6UfqchveZoGhWjUiqH2Zqo1HqB9qi8g8UVkC8YNUpump",
    "name": "KRTS",
    "symbol": "KRTS",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 267,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3264.954565701401,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 484,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T00:10:41.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3049.1198960029483,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3717.466606192916,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3264.954565701401,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6529.909131402802
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $KRTS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,049, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $KRTS (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash09886abbea70853bb932006dc14896974afb8ba6bd276e5d1b3c5dbf1a13621c

Previous hashcc90d95b9e4bb10df68656ac7a208adf3cc51276b06874b79aaf68edccb5b98c