Ledger / Prediction #2719 · narrative · 6H
Will "golden" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
29 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "golden" (10 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.55×.
Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.263678687632856,
"momentum": 0.9378460532822078,
"diversity": -0.4862068965517241
},
"rawProbability": 0.550012819375864
},
"features": {
"term": "golden",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.05189873417721519,
"share60": 0.0203168044077135,
"total15": 394,
"total60": 1451,
"momentum": 2.554473288993778,
"diversity": 0.3448275862068966,
"launches15": 20,
"launches60": 29,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 10
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 159,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999847222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.550012819375864
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.202
Log loss0.598
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.012603610764164868,
"shareRatio": 3.021198797486883,
"totalAfter": 8807,
"shareBefore": 0.00415570023548968,
"totalBefore": 14438,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 111,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 60
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "golden" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 1.26% (+203%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "golden" (6H). momentum contributed +0.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
156fd45316b8c6a5292f00746925118a4af737d6fbf5b25ff025a1194b119006Previous hash
950a231224b335bcfd0a06a663b567e0d153645464d8a286e97dac9271ee6448