Ledger / Prediction #2718 · narrative · 6H
Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.
Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": -2.8413232959079133,
"diversity": 0.029032258064516103
},
"rawProbability": 0.11134990230332399
},
"features": {
"term": "fuck",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0012658227848101266,
"share60": 0.02169421487603306,
"total15": 394,
"total60": 1451,
"momentum": 0.05834840265220012,
"diversity": 0.7741935483870968,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 24
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 159,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999847222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.11134990230332399
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.012
Log loss0.118
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0031792892017713185,
"shareRatio": 0.6188105635454825,
"totalAfter": 8807,
"shareBefore": 0.0051946252943621,
"totalBefore": 14438,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 28,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 75
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 11% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.32% (-39%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "fuck" (6H). momentum contributed -2.84 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
950a231224b335bcfd0a06a663b567e0d153645464d8a286e97dac9271ee6448Previous hash
0c9520003f499f4a6951ebdf49e9e8bf2607d10968bc1bdbf2cb1f67995b1387