GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2715 · narrative · 1H

Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (10 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.63×.

Made2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": 0.9653391938624065,
      "diversity": -0.5129032258064516
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6049463891731154
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.056962025316455694,
    "share60": 0.02169421487603306,
    "total15": 394,
    "total60": 1451,
    "momentum": 2.625678119349005,
    "diversity": 0.3225806451612903,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999083333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6049463891731154
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.156
Log loss0.503
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.028976175144880875,
  "shareRatio": 1.3505648505648506,
  "totalAfter": 1553,
  "shareBefore": 0.02134986225895317,
  "totalBefore": 1452,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "energy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.13% → 2.90% (+36%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "energy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash176bf6184accf0f8194755cbb6524ae3005a4aa8cd639b3da969b1d27d9b7065
Previous hashbd12c5232700bd859c686897aa3e978377a6fd7c2695ab0bab46be7edb284a44