Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 1451 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (23 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.97×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": 0.6797601716074045,
"diversity": -0.3127659574468085
},
"rawProbability": 0.5994324003253834
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.06455696202531645,
"share60": 0.03271349862258953,
"total15": 394,
"total60": 1451,
"momentum": 1.973404397068621,
"diversity": 0.48936170212765956,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 23
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 159,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999083333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999083333333333
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5994324003253834
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.032839665164198326,
"shareRatio": 1.0137438190069767,
"totalAfter": 1553,
"shareBefore": 0.03236914600550964,
"totalBefore": 1452,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 51,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 47
}Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.24% → 3.28% (+1%). PARTIAL.
— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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