Ledger / Prediction #2711 · token · 1H

Will $MLP still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5MTQrniymgr7NYFdW63sakGjyHSTpQ4aaUvG9qHopump",
    "name": "My Coin",
    "symbol": "MLP",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 38,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3014.1800092613817,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 479,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T23:34:46.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2950.3423700900016,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3014.1800092613817,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3014.1800092613817,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6028.360018522763
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $MLP would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,950, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $MLP (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8d2195b50c37e9c03f5ba5dfd739ee07653830e291e66740e5183599b479ddbb

Previous hashd63bfc1d330fca4c15d5b984fad359596a3fc2e300317e05eac036c62ab9d37d