Ledger / Prediction #2708 · narrative · 24H

Will "manya" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "manya" (4 distinct creators, rank #204). Last 15m momentum 2.30×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.8345526296153737,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5367526712931294
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "manya",
    "rank60": 204,
    "share15": 0.007763975155279503,
    "share60": 0.0033700980392156864,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 2.3037831733483904,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997659027777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5367526712931294
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.215

Log loss0.622

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001044301594300434,
  "shareRatio": 5.465792893539892,
  "totalAfter": 43091,
  "shareBefore": 0.00018301610541727673,
  "totalBefore": 49176,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "manya" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.02% → 0.10% (+471%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "manya" (24H). momentum contributed +0.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4b2f40556851b76c346bf3f3fc8264dc50643f1a4ca32d513f785e6269cae4d6

Previous hash89ec4d395790512654c7cf3e7cc3e174966790c543256201446ca0027e430e67