Will "department" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "department" (24 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -2.6396698870616713,
      "diversity": -0.07714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18057404707784128
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "department",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0015527950310559005,
    "share60": 0.021752450980392156,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.07138483072347127,
    "diversity": 0.6857142857142857,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997659027777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18057404707784128
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007426144670580864,
  "shareRatio": 0.7808275562199847,
  "totalAfter": 43091,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009557507727346673,
  "totalBefore": 49176,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity