Ledger / Prediction #2704 · narrative · 6H

Will "theme" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "theme" (4 distinct creators, rank #223). Last 15m momentum 0.46×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.7748852828187267,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.309935748565205
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "theme",
    "rank60": 223,
    "share15": 0.0015527950310559005,
    "share60": 0.0033700980392156864,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.4607566346696781,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990636111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.309935748565205
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.096

Log loss0.371

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001112470797641562,
  "shareRatio": 0.6640648939072765,
  "totalAfter": 8989,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017257400769945573,
  "totalBefore": 15066,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "theme" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.11% (-36%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "theme" (6H). momentum contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb73c0e07f31a1d9ca9bd835450a8d2ba6535dc60204e9e112a83029aac628c05

Previous hashaeed388caa135faad0b02171082ecb28c926ccc5e9487fd799d1aaa851ed82be