Ledger / Prediction #2703 · narrative · 6H

Will "att" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "att" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.4958243288674782,
      "diversity": -0.7628571428571428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4298158778257726
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "att",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03571428571428571,
    "share60": 0.021752450980392156,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 1.641851106639839,
    "diversity": 0.11428571428571428,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990636111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4298158778257726
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.185

Log loss0.562

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016687061964623428,
  "shareRatio": 0.5837659821774506,
  "totalAfter": 8989,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029204832072215587,
  "totalBefore": 15066,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "att" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.17% (-43%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "att" (6H). diversity contributed -0.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaeed388caa135faad0b02171082ecb28c926ccc5e9487fd799d1aaa851ed82be

Previous hash149de30388937d470fdc08dfe33097a4fc573eb46a5fb045a599c8fa932936ba