Ledger / Prediction #2699 · narrative · 1H

Will "marsx" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "marsx" (25 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

Made2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -1.9323380715097696,
      "diversity": -0.32307692307692304
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09937896222824467
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "marsx",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.004658385093167702,
    "share60": 0.03216911764705882,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.14480922803904173,
    "diversity": 0.4807692307692308,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 188,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943816666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943816666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09937896222824467
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.010

Log loss0.105

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006489292667099286,
  "shareRatio": 0.03033166574022605,
  "totalAfter": 1541,
  "shareBefore": 0.03178484107579462,
  "totalBefore": 1636,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "marsx" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.18% → 0.06% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "marsx" (1H). momentum contributed -1.93 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash99d12e1f3d21bc78db24d566a29af401a2fd50a463a852987184a50c4534ec0f

Previous hashe6ef44c22259179be6b11f26e6c1134a2a2e50f6902a7c71bda406a2c9cb3939