GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2692 · narrative · 24H

Will "purple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "purple" (9 distinct creators, rank #77). Last 15m momentum 1.66×.

Made2026-10-12 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": 0.5061661365473658,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5046856687183662
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "purple",
    "rank60": 77,
    "share15": 0.010135135135135136,
    "share60": 0.006109481915933529,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2045,
    "momentum": 1.658918918918919,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 247,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999038657407407
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5046856687183662
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.255
Log loss0.703
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.001986491855383393,
  "shareRatio": 1.0006880491789083,
  "totalAfter": 42789,
  "shareBefore": 0.001986660990492408,
  "totalBefore": 49329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 85,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 98
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "purple" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.20% (-0%). PARTIAL.

— "purple" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6899e92c2216b0b41dd7be4401461bd17ce153408aa61a02471036451003862e
Previous hash111fd9a8b3ee1af11d6530565b342d691c5635613096e3b7f7be030de3a52418