Ledger / Prediction #269 · narrative · 6H

Will "final" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 2441 launches in the last hour referenced "final" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

Made2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -2.1637747861222403,
      "diversity": -0.27931034482758615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14769387350112892
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "final",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0027522935779816515,
    "share60": 0.023955773955773956,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 2441,
    "momentum": 0.11489061397318279,
    "diversity": 0.5172413793103449,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 383,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99465,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991083333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14769387350112892
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.160

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0023484897905929935,
  "shareRatio": 0.4944383860414395,
  "totalAfter": 15329,
  "shareBefore": 0.004779060363208587,
  "totalBefore": 13601,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "final" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.23% (-51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "final" (6H). momentum contributed -2.16 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash381fe352527f195a6c981c48cfac6cb4fa8e44c1baee6554cface528fbaff931

Previous hashb21d59bf539fafb84c16270c568d5257a0d0b5a2885946e33b2a5807d5129dea