Ledger / Prediction #2688 · narrative · 6H

Will "phantom" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "phantom" (23 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 1.68×.

Made2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": 0.5201768736169641,
      "diversity": -0.009677419354838701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.561912453706142
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "phantom",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.0259009009009009,
    "share60": 0.015395894428152493,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2045,
    "momentum": 1.6823251823251824,
    "diversity": 0.7419354838709677,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 247,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999615462962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.561912453706142
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.316

Log loss0.825

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007748505645339827,
  "shareRatio": 0.34375207526286666,
  "totalAfter": 9034,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023827923750644,
  "totalBefore": 15528,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "phantom" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.08% (-67%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "phantom" (6H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha866f4a0c178ff4ab36675fa547534e2f9d392d0abd679c5992683ea7651b939

Previous hashaf22c71fc296356eeb45997bc0a607f8f52f669016d8636894d99e2404c72565