Ledger / Prediction #2686 · narrative · 6H

Will "hat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "hat" (50 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

Made2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -0.7408661572390173,
      "diversity": -0.0666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35773373338309045
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.016891891891891893,
    "share60": 0.03543499511241447,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2045,
    "momentum": 0.4767008387698043,
    "diversity": 0.6944444444444444,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 247,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999615462962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35773373338309045
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.128

Log loss0.443

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018817799424396724,
  "shareRatio": 0.33235697884531307,
  "totalAfter": 9034,
  "shareBefore": 0.005795981452859351,
  "totalBefore": 15528,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 90
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "hat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.58% → 0.19% (-68%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hat" (6H). momentum contributed -0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc3ae98126f16b3c6c39084835af8d9db6c4cdfb77b15a098f1a728f63d3e57f5

Previous hashdee5d0ed8d19e50634738c1f93fb0deeaf148862531978779c1ecb7ca6199b6a