Ledger / Prediction #2683 · narrative · 1H

Will "hat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "hat" (50 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

Made2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -0.7408661572390173,
      "diversity": -0.0666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3301628527945023
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.016891891891891893,
    "share60": 0.03543499511241447,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2045,
    "momentum": 0.4767008387698043,
    "diversity": 0.6944444444444444,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 247,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9976927777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3301628527945023
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.109

Log loss0.401

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003443526170798898,
  "shareRatio": 0.1071362460545364,
  "totalAfter": 1452,
  "shareBefore": 0.035104826913700635,
  "totalBefore": 2051,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "hat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.51% → 0.34% (-90%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5848dea65051a25ffeb464cf6f5fdded76cd5dc4ee9b91d507ed3b14f04463cb

Previous hashf2c651c19ff1c851879bd3275ce186dda054fbbb80d9b5776971bf61614f0b80