Ledger / Prediction #2681 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 2045 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (50 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.87×.

Made2026-10-12 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": -0.14046102837768662,
      "diversity": -0.21034482758620693
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44464401543989085
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.037162162162162164,
    "share60": 0.0427663734115347,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2045,
    "momentum": 0.8689575289575291,
    "diversity": 0.5747126436781609,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 247,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976927777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9976927777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44464401543989085
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.198

Log loss0.588

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03305785123966942,
  "shareRatio": 0.7827902861075609,
  "totalAfter": 1452,
  "shareBefore": 0.0424183325207216,
  "totalBefore": 2051,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 48,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.24% → 3.31% (-22%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb8ea650402663cce8797deab29f53122ad2cc4aa1a4068326d5ddf37baf939d6

Previous hash1bab9ad88f9625246f2ec2f9bbe511fdfcea8eebbeaf8a9cc054ac1e583b8d00