Ledger / Prediction #268 · narrative · 1H

Will "mission" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2441 launches in the last hour referenced "mission" (3 distinct creators, rank #315). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

Made2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.0651624974541307,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16276269551379377
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mission",
    "rank60": 315,
    "share15": 0.0009174311926605505,
    "share60": 0.0026617526617526617,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 2441,
    "momentum": 0.34467184191954836,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 383,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99465,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99465
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16276269551379377
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.027

Log loss0.178

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002271006813020439,
  "shareRatio": 0.8066590995081346,
  "totalAfter": 2642,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028466856445709637,
  "totalBefore": 2459,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "mission" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.23% (-20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "mission" (1H). momentum contributed -1.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb21d59bf539fafb84c16270c568d5257a0d0b5a2885946e33b2a5807d5129dea

Previous hash65b3dd238244234f6633353e714edfd8bef619dacc6ff93e81df1507957c5d44