GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2676 · narrative · 24H

Will "million" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2187 launches in the last hour referenced "million" (6 distinct creators, rank #148). Last 15m momentum 2.26×.

Made2026-10-12 23:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.8164297717823672,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5358048984584945
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "million",
    "rank60": 148,
    "share15": 0.0087890625,
    "share60": 0.0038848263254113347,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2187,
    "momentum": 2.262408088235294,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996609722222223
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5358048984584945
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.215
Log loss0.624
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012154076290201944,
  "shareRatio": 1.1343590370893808,
  "totalAfter": 42784,
  "shareBefore": 0.001071637988555715,
  "totalBefore": 49457,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "million" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.12% (+13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "million" (24H). momentum contributed +0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb605e2e3ca138c9130a6bc537f30026672c9b43697aee0bdf73237324c5a5def
Previous hasha864a5904606cad08e5746941632ddc0a0329063070a5d097077639a4f1936c3