Ledger / Prediction #2674 · narrative · 24H

Will "team" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 2187 launches in the last hour referenced "team" (4 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

Made2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -2.1217980072914324,
      "diversity": -0.809433962264151
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16958772712395126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "team",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0029296875,
    "share60": 0.024451553930530164,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2187,
    "momentum": 0.1198160046728972,
    "diversity": 0.07547169811320754,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996609722222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16958772712395126
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.029

Log loss0.186

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015660059835452505,
  "shareRatio": 0.3778580950249304,
  "totalAfter": 42784,
  "shareBefore": 0.004165234446084478,
  "totalBefore": 49457,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 206
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "team" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.16% (-62%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "team" (24H). momentum contributed -2.12 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcbf3506cdfebc31ead13f196ebb0aebb28ec303d41fbdc1d2bd846912d2dcc19

Previous hashddf63ac9d5caeea49f9f6457b5bc2bc70362dcbe3a3d42e2cba04ccdf7d27a8f