Will "main" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2187 launches in the last hour referenced "main" (5 distinct creators, rank #169). Last 15m momentum 1.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.3538062498342544,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48825065326750783
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "main",
    "rank60": 169,
    "share15": 0.0048828125,
    "share60": 0.0034277879341864715,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2187,
    "momentum": 1.4244791666666667,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986438888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48825065326750783
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013369565217391305,
  "shareRatio": 8.72514300796941,
  "totalAfter": 9200,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015070643642072213,
  "totalBefore": 15925,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 123,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity