Ledger / Prediction #2670 · narrative · 6H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2187 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (32 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

Made2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -0.10782912974096466,
      "diversity": -0.24915254237288134
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4278235154684279
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0244140625,
    "share60": 0.027193784277879343,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2187,
    "momentum": 0.8977809873949579,
    "diversity": 0.5423728813559322,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986438888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4278235154684279
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.327

Log loss0.849

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.026195652173913044,
  "shareRatio": 1.5172851684431838,
  "totalAfter": 9200,
  "shareBefore": 0.01726844583987441,
  "totalBefore": 15925,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 241,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 275
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.73% → 2.62% (+52%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "inu" (6H). diversity contributed -0.25 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc8b3277e330a9bcd315280c0e450d63d83cdbb056c016982937e7dd30a0e5045

Previous hashb34ad53650b79485538db5d9872e04ac3bd7175f9a3237ba14eeb8e83e2f1c72