Ledger / Prediction #2660 · narrative · 24H

Will "duge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "duge" (12 distinct creators, rank #58). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

Made2026-10-12 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": 0.2679353095169465,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49386901363772806
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "duge",
    "rank60": 58,
    "share15": 0.008379888268156424,
    "share60": 0.00641025641025641,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 1.3072625698324023,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997769791666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49386901363772806
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.244

Log loss0.681

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00016307133205982388,
  "shareRatio": 0.5226208552786232,
  "totalAfter": 42926,
  "shareBefore": 0.0003241819471178199,
  "totalBefore": 49355,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 16
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "duge" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.03% → 0.02% (-50%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "duge" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd810368061abeb5f81ac8974fe25fafffa5794faa303193cc50e2a23bd4153a7

Previous hash847093c489e6c2d04ec29248b9899850d55c37f203d406cd397eaff0d21cffba