Will "free" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

56 of 2441 launches in the last hour referenced "free" (15 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3623870667451573,
      "momentum": -0.5195507576027246,
      "diversity": -0.5785714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26197374337656154
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "free",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.013761467889908258,
    "share60": 0.023136773136773137,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 2441,
    "momentum": 0.5947876918080701,
    "diversity": 0.26785714285714285,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 56,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 383,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99465,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99465
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26197374337656154
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016654049962149888,
  "shareRatio": 0.7203276908651236,
  "totalAfter": 2642,
  "shareBefore": 0.023180154534363562,
  "totalBefore": 2459,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 44,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity