Will "duge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "duge" (12 distinct creators, rank #58). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": 0.2679353095169465,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5214031016671772
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "duge",
    "rank60": 58,
    "share15": 0.008379888268156424,
    "share60": 0.00641025641025641,
    "total15": 536,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 1.3072625698324023,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991079166666667
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5214031016671772
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00010395010395010396,
  "shareRatio": 0.1557577647381202,
  "totalAfter": 9620,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009706970818418977,
  "totalBefore": 16483,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 16
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity