Ledger / Prediction #2644 · narrative · 24H

Will "monke" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "monke" (5 distinct creators, rank #327). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9295359586241757,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3509723260948311
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "monke",
    "rank60": 327,
    "share15": 0.0008771929824561404,
    "share60": 0.0022222222222222222,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 0.39473684210526316,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930671296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3509723260948311
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.123

Log loss0.432

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00039520178538218336,
  "shareRatio": 0.566001256627334,
  "totalAfter": 43016,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007086454747924681,
  "totalBefore": 49390,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "monke" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.04% (-44%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "monke" (24H). momentum contributed -0.93 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5340346b6c6fa9b44c0db9b1d97968ebcef0b0c7c985d6e12ef315856bd26897

Previous hash46d543d61f6fb640647cef579843e7c5198ee0a795bf822424501b2728dcccf2