Ledger / Prediction #2642 · narrative · 24H

Will "cognita" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

118 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "cognita" (42 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4741870068047347,
      "momentum": -0.10788052885030978,
      "diversity": -0.4728813559322034
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4125854533458895
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cognita",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04298245614035088,
    "share60": 0.04787878787878788,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 0.8977348434377082,
    "diversity": 0.3559322033898305,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 118,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930671296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4125854533458895
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.170

Log loss0.532

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001627301469220755,
  "shareRatio": 0.07266923909681865,
  "totalAfter": 43016,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023891476007288923,
  "totalBefore": 49390,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 118
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "cognita" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.02% (-93%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cognita" (24H). diversity contributed -0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2a0925e4a4bb78f9c5c8bdd9f073d999274c52cb13007be9d9ab5bee2f9c437c

Previous hash1dc13f53d811da6fb1dc804ad9eb30c4252513778f077068bab2104bbd55a3b3