Will "isabella" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "isabella" (51 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": 0.0046332129214881985,
      "diversity": -0.41811023622047244
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4378763563665884
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "isabella",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05175438596491228,
    "share60": 0.051515151515151514,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 1.0046439628482973,
    "diversity": 0.4015748031496063,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722685185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4378763563665884
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006974195476736076,
  "shareRatio": 0.09798061484007829,
  "totalAfter": 10037,
  "shareBefore": 0.007596148094981757,
  "totalBefore": 16719,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity