Ledger / Prediction #2635 · narrative · 1H

Will "cognita" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

118 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "cognita" (42 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4741870068047347,
      "momentum": -0.10788052885030978,
      "diversity": -0.4728813559322034
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39973368481348215
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cognita",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04298245614035088,
    "share60": 0.04787878787878788,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 0.8977348434377082,
    "diversity": 0.3559322033898305,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 118,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974336111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39973368481348215
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.160

Log loss0.510

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027235587834770767,
  "shareRatio": 0.06192040555338586,
  "totalAfter": 2203,
  "shareBefore": 0.04744672295938882,
  "totalBefore": 2487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 118
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "cognita" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.74% → 0.27% (-94%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cognita" (1H). diversity contributed -0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8952b269c6a4494040a2994ed9691e75084f8faf11b52258dbe138a809c39fcd

Previous hash6aa5b30db4e41559c2908ca46187723b66cfbc50b0492659131d7aeb5d84b72f