Ledger / Prediction #2634 · narrative · 1H

Will "isabella" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "isabella" (51 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": 0.0046332129214881985,
      "diversity": -0.41811023622047244
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4431803387331247
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "isabella",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05175438596491228,
    "share60": 0.051515151515151514,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 1.0046439628482973,
    "diversity": 0.4015748031496063,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974336111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4431803387331247
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.196

Log loss0.586

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027235587834770767,
  "shareRatio": 0.05754955339667628,
  "totalAfter": 2203,
  "shareBefore": 0.051065540812223566,
  "totalBefore": 2487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "isabella" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.11% → 0.27% (-95%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "isabella" (1H). diversity contributed -0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6aa5b30db4e41559c2908ca46187723b66cfbc50b0492659131d7aeb5d84b72f

Previous hash0379f6b7da420c61f6d1aec4ede0e3599a7090d786c550c0a56e11047c0ead97