Ledger / Prediction #2633 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

133 of 2474 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (66 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

Made2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49213668236814795,
      "momentum": -0.3576892285324923,
      "diversity": -0.30451127819548873
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38460113735006113
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.037719298245614034,
    "share60": 0.05393939393939394,
    "total15": 569,
    "total60": 2474,
    "momentum": 0.6992903607332939,
    "diversity": 0.49624060150375937,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 133,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 66
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 275,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974336111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38460113735006113
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.148

Log loss0.485

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04312301407172038,
  "shareRatio": 0.8015301681970597,
  "totalAfter": 2203,
  "shareBefore": 0.05388017691998392,
  "totalBefore": 2487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 134
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.39% → 4.31% (-20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.36 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0379f6b7da420c61f6d1aec4ede0e3599a7090d786c550c0a56e11047c0ead97

Previous hashf79896fdbf813255724d27976f8bf6eb568595c3a91a6fc669787494edfad825