Will "walterjr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2724 launches in the last hour referenced "walterjr" (42 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": -3.6362429112795773,
      "diversity": -0.3580645161290323
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11126181245595344
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "walterjr",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0009041591320072332,
    "share60": 0.03431192660550459,
    "total15": 552,
    "total60": 2724,
    "momentum": 0.026351161868660003,
    "diversity": 0.45161290322580644,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996714351851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11126181245595344
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001411167035138059,
  "shareRatio": 0.07153868986811472,
  "totalAfter": 42518,
  "shareBefore": 0.0021268407300127612,
  "totalBefore": 49369,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity