Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

165 of 2724 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (24 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.524476134219972,
      "momentum": -1.8093573970036827,
      "diversity": -0.7254545454545454
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1535226844464652
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.009945750452079566,
    "share60": 0.06073394495412844,
    "total15": 552,
    "total60": 2724,
    "momentum": 0.16375933523816807,
    "diversity": 0.14545454545454545,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 165,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 292,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986857407407408
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1535226844464652
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006539664486778504,
  "shareRatio": 0.4333029535592728,
  "totalAfter": 10551,
  "shareBefore": 0.015172008232872684,
  "totalBefore": 17005,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 258
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity