Ledger / Prediction #2616 · token · 6H

Will $Cannies still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 24m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 12 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DC3WGypyVh481AQ1mcMqePUc7dfygAmt8SXtt3PHpump",
    "name": "Cannies",
    "symbol": "Cannies",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 24,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3098.1792061566593,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 12
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 1027,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T20:36:43.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3076.405562117253,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3098.1792061566593,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3098.1792061566593,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6196.358412313319
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $Cannies would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,076, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Cannies (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashed758e055e9c494ca533eebc90bbdc04279de56fc6d382527f706a4c614785ce

Previous hashc3d15521ceab5715e0603117bdb3147ba896af7f1e7722ff6690070d69d452a3