Will "win" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "win" (5 distinct creators, rank #372). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.8723613671211307,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35751166188292005
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "win",
    "rank60": 372,
    "share15": 0.0007507507507507507,
    "share60": 0.0017962116263879817,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 0.41796341796341796,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998002893518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35751166188292005
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016245997362968544,
  "shareRatio": 0.5347060039628068,
  "totalAfter": 42472,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030501443735003455,
  "totalBefore": 49178,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 150
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity