Will "remember" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
163 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "remember" (63 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.5226468432558993,
"momentum": -0.7090782037305997,
"diversity": -0.4361963190184049
},
"rawProbability": 0.35175955159676764
},
"features": {
"term": "remember",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.026276276276276277,
"share60": 0.053396472893533636,
"total15": 665,
"total60": 3061,
"momentum": 0.49209760218934534,
"diversity": 0.38650306748466257,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 163,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 63
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 306,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998002893518518
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.35175955159676764
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0009417969485778867,
"shareRatio": 0.2612506178757378,
"totalAfter": 42472,
"shareBefore": 0.0036398389523770794,
"totalBefore": 49178,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 40,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 179
}Predicted 35% that "remember" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.09% (-74%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "remember" (24H). momentum contributed -0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
24be0f961d9011043df5340607b350ce523298ab4fdec45ae35a5d1932f721e21456ba45fb9dbb6eae574cc573d7864036beb6eceb0ef5fc90c184530d24e8c9