GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2610 · narrative · 24H

Will "remember" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

163 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "remember" (63 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5226468432558993,
      "momentum": -0.7090782037305997,
      "diversity": -0.4361963190184049
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35175955159676764
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "remember",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.026276276276276277,
    "share60": 0.053396472893533636,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 0.49209760218934534,
    "diversity": 0.38650306748466257,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 163,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 63
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998002893518518
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35175955159676764
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.124
Log loss0.434
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009417969485778867,
  "shareRatio": 0.2612506178757378,
  "totalAfter": 42472,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036398389523770794,
  "totalBefore": 49178,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 40,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 179
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "remember" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.09% (-74%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "remember" (24H). momentum contributed -0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash24be0f961d9011043df5340607b350ce523298ab4fdec45ae35a5d1932f721e2
Previous hash1456ba45fb9dbb6eae574cc573d7864036beb6eceb0ef5fc90c184530d24e8c9