Ledger / Prediction #2609 · narrative · 24H

Will "walter" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

174 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "walter" (88 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.65×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5324426080170642,
      "momentum": -0.4377177184145607,
      "diversity": -0.293103448275862
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40150713981361275
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "walter",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.03678678678678678,
    "share60": 0.0569888961463096,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 0.6455079721555366,
    "diversity": 0.5057471264367817,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 174,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 88
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998002893518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40150713981361275
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.161

Log loss0.513

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015304200414390657,
  "shareRatio": 0.43214643551328036,
  "totalAfter": 42472,
  "shareBefore": 0.0035585017690837367,
  "totalBefore": 49178,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 65,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 175
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "walter" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.15% (-57%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "walter" (24H). momentum contributed -0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1456ba45fb9dbb6eae574cc573d7864036beb6eceb0ef5fc90c184530d24e8c9

Previous hash782453e022e1c770273758417229c01d28b7e2d713ef8792e4994c37d90a4aee