Ledger / Prediction #2603 · narrative · 1H

Will "wtf" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

152 of 3061 launches in the last hour referenced "wtf" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.37×.

Made2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5121663912618264,
      "momentum": 0.31608163558667834,
      "diversity": -0.8763157894736842
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41385106190123117
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wtf",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.06831831831831832,
    "share60": 0.04980404964075767,
    "total15": 665,
    "total60": 3061,
    "momentum": 1.371742234037316,
    "diversity": 0.019736842105263157,
    "launches15": 45,
    "launches60": 152,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 306,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952069444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952069444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41385106190123117
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.171

Log loss0.534

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01407318053880177,
  "shareRatio": 0.288270254599125,
  "totalAfter": 2487,
  "shareBefore": 0.04935064935064935,
  "totalBefore": 3080,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 152
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "wtf" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.94% → 1.41% (-71%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "wtf" (1H). diversity contributed -0.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash45bbb21d288d5e5f05da33122b30285ccbc6fe60f7263cafbf4da26a48d2afd6

Previous hashe34ba3a9b218115b43a8c9cb8f8f418fdd215cd196c04e85c4ef8c14626dab9c