Will "robinhood" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
10 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "robinhood" (10 distinct creators, rank #156). Last 15m momentum 1.53×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.1039720770839918,
"momentum": 0.42766288708849026,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5700718919366732
},
"features": {
"term": "robinhood",
"rank60": 156,
"share15": 0.006607929515418502,
"share60": 0.004308576118178088,
"total15": 680,
"total60": 2436,
"momentum": 1.5336689741976086,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 10,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 10
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 399,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971438888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995239814814815
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5700718919366732
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00845858546424621,
"shareRatio": 1.621270530745215,
"totalAfter": 15369,
"shareBefore": 0.005199698568198945,
"totalBefore": 13270,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 130,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 69
}Predicted 57% that "robinhood" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.85% (+63%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "robinhood" (6H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
05d76cfbb66d78555ae7f9fb1a4a2437583c5e51af6cbe298709a6d9d452c331baa7cc9791958f13e9ea168c5d6ed70d85a0a4f3d5948101b1b69b01ccbd52da